The Fed’s September FOMC meeting will launch their monetary policy fed-speak this afternoon beginning at 2pm EST and Jay Powell goes live at 2:30pm. No drastic change in policy is expected as interest rates are slated to remain in ZIRP/NIRP land until at least 2023, the (COVID19 / SARSCoV2) pandemic is steering FOMC decisions, and Powell already announced a plan to allow inflation to run hot beyond 2% (if it gets there) before considering any major shift in policy stance.
The last time I discussed a detailed technical analysis was during my Aug. 8th interview on Palisade Radio, and a couple follow-up charts are located within its Twitter thread. Today’s gold and silver charts speak for themselves without a need for extensive written analyses.
Before reviewing the gold and silver chart below, it’s important to listen to ten minutes of the Aug. 2nd interview with Dr. Dave Janda (begin at timestamp 14:52) on Operation Freedom live radio. That analysis remains intact as well as the analyses from my interview with Palisade Radio, and today’s FOMC meeting may begin a launch of gold and silver out of their consolidation and into an upward-seasonality pattern for the fall.
Stay on your toes today, keep abreast of news events going forward about the 2020 election, and a potential pandemic 2nd Wave (see Twitter thread) is brewing for the fall. To view a larger version of either chart below, right-click on it and choose your “view image” option.
Gold Spot daily chart as of Sep. 16, 9:25am EST…
As noted on Aug. 2nd, a pullback that tests support at the 2011 $1,920 all-time-high was necessary after the price action had gotten ahead of itself within an overbought condition. The pullback began on Aug. 7th, but not until the first Fibonacci Extension at 23.6% was challenged. The 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has not been violated in the current consolidation and the price action remains solidly in a tight range. The DMI-ADX is indecisive thus far and the StochRSI has trended into an overbought level – that combination indicates that no serious downside risk is likely in the near-term within a suspended consolidation, although the FOMC announcement and upcoming issues regarding the 2020 election and pandemic may abruptly shift trend and momentum. The buy and sell volumes are declining in tandem and that signals a shift in trend is imminent. The chart remains bullish with an intact uptrend.
Silver Spot daily chart as of Sep. 16, 9:25am EST…
During the Aug. 8th Palisade Radio interview I made the point that a Fibonacci confluence can be an area of significant resistance, and that scenario has played out in spades for silver. The all-important $21.49 Fibonacci level is one for the history books and silver’s technical studies currently mirror gold’s bullishness.
UPDATES 3pm EST:
“FOMC LEAVES TARGET RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.00-0.25%; AS EXPECTED; FED WILL MAINTAIN LOW RATES UNTIL JOB AND INFLATION GOALS MET; PROJECTS NO RISE IN RATE THROUGH AT LEAST 2023; FED WILL MAINTAIN ASSET BUYING AT CURRENT PACE.” – Fed FOMC Statement
“Fed statement AND Powell RIDDLED with inconsistencies *Unemployment rate forecast DOWN *GDP forecast also DOWN *As for that AVERAGE inflation target they’re going to allow to run hot, it’s not projected to hit 2% for YEARS All the Fed wants is stimulus spending to do more QE.” – Danielle DiMartino Booth
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