Originally published on Oct. 8, 2021 by TraderStef at CrushTheStreet
I am just a modern-day plebeian residing in the freest U.S. state while observing the world via mainstream propaganda and alternative media resources, and then there’s my gut. Unless a significant de-escalation occurs between the West and China’s CCP, a kinetic interaction between military forces is likely. The severity, duration, and eventual outcome are unknowns. Consider perusing the following articles before venturing further into today’s article.
From “China: You Want A Trade War, Bring It On” Part 1 and Part 2 in 2019, this excerpt zeroed in on China’s underlying motive that governs its geopolitical goals and their shortcoming:
“A history of “barbarian handling” influences China’s CCP leadership, which is a tradition of making adversaries become dependent on their economic largesse, subsequently pressuring foreign leaders to shift over to their value systems. The practice prejudices the CCP to see other nations as hegemonic or a vassal state instead of coequals and pushes them to create economic dependence so they can manipulate foreign elite opinions to view Chinese power as advantageous. Those practices result in CCP anxiety that they are always facing the threat of surrender or domestic political disunity. Too many corporate entities and foreign executives that benefited from the boom in China did not seriously consider the downside risks. The CCP was clearly engaging in abusive trade practices for a very long time, and U.S. leadership failed to do anything about it, all the while China had its cake and ate it while ignoring trade rules, laws, and contracts. China has a severe sensitivity to the thought of being pushed around and is unlikely to adapt to a premise that it should behave like everyone else… What is missing from discussion in the Western media is China’s motivation and perspective based on their history, as they appear not to accept that economic integration with other countries through globalization has consequences and will inevitably weaken national sovereignty.”
These articles will shed additional light on the current situation:
- Trade War Escalation Due to Barbarian Handling of Hong Kong by China – Nov. 2019
- Survival of China’s Communist Party Threatened by a Minuscule Virus – Feb. 2020
- An Ice-9 Pandemic Tipping Point Exposes China’s Barbarian Handling – Mar.18
- Dancing With a Taiwanese Time Bomb and Black Gold Part 1, Nov. 14
- Kabuki Theater Revealed With Kabul’s Saigon Weekend Part 1, Aug. 15, 2021
- Kabuki Theater Revealed With Kabul’s Saigon Weekend Part 2, Aug. 20 (Twitter thread)
- Dancing With a Taiwanese Time Bomb and Black Gold Part 2, Sep. 13 (Twitter thread)
The tension between the U.S. and China escalated significantly following Trump’s exit from the White House and Biden’s diplomatic team’s first meeting with Chinese diplomats. With issues ranging from the pandemic’s origins, the political takeover of Hong Kong, South China Sea sovereignty violations, the West’s naval excursions and exercises with allies throughout Indo-Pacific international waters, and Taiwan’s independence, the diplomatic disaster during the first U.S.-China face-to-face meeting in Alaska intensified the CCP’s fearless attitude. Diplomatic strains with China have been long in the making but were unmistakably clear in public statements made in July and China’s reaction to a U.S. Air Force mission that made an unannounced landing in Taiwan.
Xi Jinping warns foreign nations will ‘get their heads bashed bloody’… “if they attempt to interfere with China. The Chinese premier made the comment during a speech on Thursday to mark the centenary of the ruling Communist Party (CCP). Addressing a crowd of people at Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, Mr. Xi condemned foreign powers that are trying to bully his country. ‘We will never allow anyone to bully, oppress or subjugate China. Anyone who dares try to do that will have their heads bashed bloody against the Great Wall of Steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people. No one should underestimate the resolve, the will and ability of the Chinese people to defend their national sovereignty and territorial integrity.’” – Express UK, Jul. 1
China Says U.S. Trespassing in Its Airspace After Documents Sent to Taiwan… “China warned of ‘serious consequences’ for trespassing in its airspace on Thursday, hours after the U.S. Air Force delivered ‘diplomatic mail’ to the de facto U.S. embassy in Taipei. A C-146A Wolfhound, typically used by Air Force Special Operations Command, left Okinawa’s Kadena air base in Japan before landing at Songshan airport in Taiwan’s capital… Wu Qian, a spokesperson for China’s Defense Ministry said that ‘Taiwan is part of China’s sacred and inalienable territory. Any foreign military aircraft that lands on Chinese territory must obtain permission from the government of the People’s Republic of China. Any foreign ships or planes trespassing into Chinese airspace will trigger serious consequences’” – Newsweek, Jul. 15
“The United States is in no position to lecture China or make wanton comments on China, let alone asserting to deal with China ‘from a position of strength’, a foreign ministry spokesperson said on Friday. Zhao Lijian made the remarks at a daily press briefing in response to a question regarding U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman’s upcoming visit to Tianjin. The United States’ repeated assertion to deal with China ‘from a position of strength’ reflects its arrogance and hegemony, he said. ‘We did not buy it in Anchorage, nor will we buy it in Tianjin’” – XinhuaNet, July 23
The next player that entered this apocalyptic game of chess is Japan. The CCP made no bones about their military stance and opinion on Japan having anything to say about Taiwan’s sovereignty.
US and Japan conduct war games amid rising China-Taiwan tensions… “‘The Japanese government has increasingly recognized, and even acknowledges publicly, that the defense of Taiwan equates to the defense of Japan,’ said Heino Klinck, a former top Pentagon official who oversaw military relations with Japan and Taiwan from late 2019 until the end of the Trump administration.” – FT, Jun. 30
China will ‘use nuclear bombs’ if Japan intervenes with Taiwan… “A CCP authority in the province of Shaanxi, shared a five-minute video, originally posted on the Chinese video sharing platform, Xigua… The video says: ‘When we liberate Taiwan, if Japan dares to intervene by force, even if it only deploys one soldier, one plane and one ship, we will not only return reciprocal fire but also start a full-scale war against Japan. We will use nuclear bombs first. We will use nuclear bombs continuously until Japan declares unconditional surrender for the second time.” – Express UK, Jul. 31
As the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan made international headlines, more shoes were dropping and Kamala Harris showed up in Vietnam with a few choice comments that infuriated Beijing.
First Taiwan Arms Sale in Biden Administration Is Approved… “The Biden administration has approved its first arms sale to the island democracy of Taiwan, a potential $750 million deal, amid rising tensions with China.… The Chinese Foreign Ministry denounced the sale and said Thursday that Beijing would take countermeasures ‘based on the development of the situation.’” – Bloomberg, Aug. 4
China’s state-affiliated Global Times warns Taiwan that Afghan chaos is an ‘omen’ for the island… “In a staff editorial, ‘the situation in Afghanistan suddenly saw a radical change after the country was abandoned by the US. and just left despite the worsening situation in Kabul… From what happened in Afghanistan, they should perceive that once a war breaks out in the Straits, the island’s defense will collapse in hours, and the US military won’t come to help,’ it wrote.” – Insider, Aug. 17
US, China Accuse Each Other of ‘Bullying’ Nations… “Speaking in Hanoi on Wednesday, Harris said there was a need to mount pressure on China over its maritime claims and offered to support Vietnam in several key areas, including enhancement of maritime security to take on Beijing’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea.” – Newsmax, Aug. 25
China viewed the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan as increased U.S. weakness and another opportunity to point out Biden’s inability to honor U.S. commitments to allies and protect its own national security interests. Remember, according to the CCP, the West has nothing but barbarians that need to be handled.
China Ramps up Attacks on U.S. Over ‘Cold War’ Mentality… “At a monthly press briefing in Beijing, China’s Defense Ministry spokesperson Tan Kefei said the country ‘firmly opposes’ recent remarks by American officials including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who chided China for its South China Sea claims during a weeklong visit to Southeast Asia in July… Tan continued: ‘At present, relations between China, the United States and the two militaries are facing serious difficulties at an important juncture. The root cause is the U.S.’s obsession with hegemony and its Cold War and zero-sum mentality. The U.S. does not accept and will not allow or accommodate China as it grows stronger. It treats China as a strategic rival and security threat, implementing comprehensive containment and suppression while seriously undermining China’s sovereignty, security and development interests.’” – NewsWeek, Aug. 25
Chinese state media vows military ‘will show up at US doorstep’ soon and ‘China will win’… “‘The US will definitely see the PLA show up at its doorstep in the not-too-distant future,’ the op-ed said. ‘The two sides warships and aircraft on the seas will carry huge mutual strategic hostility, and the two countries will not yield to each other. Once the situation gets out of control and triggers military clash between China and the US, we must give full play to our home field advantage. China will definitely win once there is a war,’ the Global Times op-ed said.” – American Military News, Sep. 9
PLA jets will eventually patrol over Taiwan: Global Times editorial… “Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authority is determined to latch onto the US and Japan to gang up against the Chinese mainland, and has increasingly kidnapped public opinion on the island, while the US is making more and more frequently strategic manipulations over the Taiwan question. Given these facts the Chinese mainland has to take fundamental measures, engaging in a resolute struggle so that to stop the situation across the Taiwan Straits from deteriorating, deter the DPP authority and its supporters, and firmly seize the strategic initiative of the regional situation.” – Global Times, Sep. 13
China has certainly ramped up missions over Taiwan’s skies.
56 Chinese warplanes intrude on Taiwan’s ADIZ… “Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) reports that a record 56 Chinese military aircraft violated Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Monday (Oct. 4), surpassing all-time records set over the weekend.” – Taiwan News
As China increased its rhetoric and military flights around Taiwan, the West was busy forging the AUKUS military alliance.
U.S., Australia and UK unveil new security partnership as China expands its military and influence… “The formation of the trio comes as the U.S. and U.K. end their 20-year military involvement in Afghanistan, a decision Biden has said will allow the U.S. to focus on emerging threats from Russia and China. The U.S. and U.K. will also assist Canberra in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, which will allow Australia’s navy to help counter Chinese nuclear-powered vessels in the region.” – CNBC, Sep. 15
First came showmanship and brinkmanship. The military factions are now setting up positions on the international chessboard.
US Expands Footprint in Indo-Pacific With New Base and Troop Rotations… “The United States is further seeking to build new military bases in the region. Following the unveiling of the AUKUS security pact, defense leaders from Australia and the United States announced at a joint press briefing that their nations would work together to expand rotational deployments of all types of U.S. aircraft to Australia, as well as the associated crew required to man and maintain them and provide logistical support.” – Epoch Times, Oct. 4
In addition to U.S. military boots and hardware on Australian soil, a recent report in the Wall Street Journal revealed that U.S. troops are on the ground in Taiwan. That little detail may turn out to be China’s red line.
U.S. Troops Have Been Deployed in Taiwan for at Least a Year… “A U.S. special-operations unit and a contingent of Marines have been secretly operating in Taiwan to train military forces there, U.S. officials said, part of efforts to shore up the island’s defenses as concern regarding potential Chinese aggression mounts. About two dozen members of U.S. special-operations and support troops are conducting training for small units of Taiwan’s ground forces, the officials said. The U.S. Marines are working with local maritime forces on small-boat training.” – WSJ, Oct. 7
China’s response via the Global Times Editor in Chief:
IMHO, the main bullet point on U.S. generals’ chalkboard for exiting Afghanistan so abruptly with such disregard of its ramifications was a determination to focus military resources on China over Taiwan. China is probing Taiwan’s air defenses and its land defense preparedness as the U.S. is shoring up its “boots on the ground” logistics, geopolitical capital, and naval resources with allies. Timing is everything, and I have no clue. Prepare accordingly for the unexpected while praying for the best.
Taiwan is preparing for Chinese invasion, and whether the US fights alongside it will determine Australia’s fate… “When Taiwan’s foreign minister warns of a fight to the end in a looming war with China, we should pay attention. This is not sabre rattling, it is not fear mongering — it is the cool headed assessment of a man whose job is to ready the Taiwanese people for the worst. Joseph Wu says Taiwan is preparing for an invasion. There are few diplomatic options right now, as Xi Jinping says that he will go to war if necessary to bring Taiwan under his control. Taiwan is a fault line that could crack open the global geopolitical order. Xi Jinping has set his course: claiming Taiwan will assure his legacy. It is the big piece in his China Dream.” – ABC, Oct. 4
Show of Military Might for President Xi Jinping – The Guardian, Jan. 2018:
It is possible that North Korea would be given a concurrent green light from Beijing to invade South Korea with any “reunification” attempt of Taiwan.
North Korea Military Parade in Slow Motion – The Guardian, 2010
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